Title:Should Europe be scared of Italy's populists?

There should be a health warning attached to all debate, guesswork, predictions and evaluations being made right now about the proposed anti-establishment government in Rome.

所有的辩论、猜测、预测和评价目前对罗马反建制政府的建议都应该有一个健康警告。

Yes, this is very much part of the populist nationalist wave that has been sweeping across Europe from Austria, to Hungary, France and the UK but at the same time you really have to view this drama through a pair of Italian opera glasses to get a better sense of what's going on.

是的，这是从奥地利向匈牙利横扫欧洲的民粹主义民族主义浪潮的很大一部分，法国和英国，但同时，你真的要透过一副意大利歌剧眼镜去看这场戏剧，以便更好地了解正在发生的事情。

This, we must remember, is Italy.

我们必须记住，这是意大利。

A country known for high drama. A nation that flirted with modern-day populism ahead of the US and the rest of Europe - with the first Berlusconi government back in 1994.

一个以戏剧性高调著称的国家，一个以现代民粹主义领先美国和欧洲其他国家的国家，与贝卢斯科尼1994年的第一个政府调配。

This is also a country that threatened to (but ultimately did not) bring the Eurozone crashing down before - in 2011 during the European debt crisis.

这也是一个在欧洲债务危机期间，有可能（但最终并未）在2011年前崩溃的欧元区国家。

Also important to note is that Italy's political system was redesigned after its fascist dictatorship and WW2 to avoid any one politician or party getting too much power ever again.

还必须注意的是，意大利的政治制度是在其法西斯专政和二战后重新设计的，以避免任何政治家或政党再次获得太多权力。

So even if this marriage of the League Party and the Five Star movement does take off, and if they manage to contain the very big ideological differences that exist between them (and that's a big if), getting dramatic reforms passed rapidly through the Italian parliament will be an uphill struggle for them.

因此，即使联盟和五星运动的这种婚姻已经结束，如果他们能够抑制他们之间存在的巨大意识形态差异（如果这种差异很大），迅速通过意大利议会的改革将是一场艰苦的斗争。

So should Europe stop worrying, sit back and simply observe this latest Italian drama unfold?

那么，欧洲应该停止担忧，坐下来，简单地观察这档最新的意大利戏剧？

In fact, despite the caveats I've listed above, what Five Star and the League are proposing would shake Italian and European politics to the core.

事实上，尽管有上面提到的警告，但五星和欧洲联盟提议将把意大利和欧洲政治改革为核心。

Brussels is spooked. As are the financial markets and investors.

布鲁塞尔是惊恐的，金融市场和投资者也是如此。

They don't like unpredictability. They don't like rule breaking.

他们不喜欢不可预测性，不喜欢违反规则。

But that's exactly what Italy's government-in-waiting has promised voters: to turn the status quo on its head.

但这恰恰是意大利等待政府的承诺：让选民们重新思考现状。

They've declared a "People's Republic" and "Italians First!" is one of their slogans.

他们宣布了“人民共和国”和“意大利第一”的文章，这是他们的口号之一。

Their message: The interests of ordinary Italians - not of the rich or well connected or of 'the bureaucrats in Brussels' should now be prioritised.

他们的信息是：普通意大利人的利益——不是富人，也不是“布鲁塞尔的官员”的利益，现在应该被优先考虑。

A seductive proposal to corruption and recession-weary Italians.

对腐败和厌倦衰退的意大利人的诱人建议。

Italy used to be a hugely EU-enthusiastic nation. Italians viewed the club as a safeguard against their often corrupt or inept national governments. They believed the euro would bring stability compared to the boom and bust cycles associated with their national currency, the lira.

意大利过去曾是一个非常热心的欧盟国家，意大利人认为该俱乐部是抵御腐败和无能的国家政府的保障。他们认为，相对于本国货币里拉带来的繁荣和衰退周期，欧元将带来稳定。

But nowadays Italy is one of the most Eurosceptic countries in the EU.

但如今，意大利是欧盟中最具欧洲特色的国家之一。

Migration is one reason. The economy is another.

移民是一个原因，经济是另一个原因。

Europe's migration crisis has washed hundreds of thousands of irregular migrants on to Italian shores. Most come to Europe with a plan to head to richer northern countries like Germany or Sweden but they get stuck in Italy due to EU regulations declaring that they have to stay and be processed in the country where are first finger-printed.

欧洲的移民危机已使数十万名非正常移民涌入意大利海岸。大部分人来到欧洲，他们打算前往德国或瑞典等较富裕的北方国家，但由于欧盟条例规定他们必须在第一次指手印的国家逗留和处理，因此被困在意大利。

Italians feel they (alongside Greece) have been left alone to shoulder a crisis that is in fact a wider European issue. Which is why many welcome the League Party's tough line on migration.

意大利人认为，他们（和希腊一样）独自肩负着一场危机，事实上这是一个更广泛的欧洲问题，因此很多人欢迎联盟党在移民问题上的强硬路线。

Italians are also bitterly resentful about the euro.

意大利人也对欧元感到极为不满。

They believe the currency's rules and regulations favour Germany, not Italy. They smoulder resentfully over Germany's current account surplus and low unemployment rate while Italy is crippled by weak growth, a stagnant labour market and massive national debt.

他们认为，人民币的规则和条例有利于德国，而不是意大利。他们对德国的经常账户盈余和失业率低感到不满，而意大利则因增长疲软、劳动力市场停滞和大量国家债务而陷入瘫痪。

Clearly not all of Italy's financial woes can be laid at Brussels' door. Italy's former centre-left government proposed structural reforms to tackle a number of issues but Five Star and the League want to spend their way out of this slump - introducing a flat tax system, a basic income for the poor and reversing pension reforms.

显然，意大利并非所有的金融困境都能够在布鲁塞尔的大门解决。意大利前中左派政府曾提议进行结构性改革，以解决一些问题，但五星和阿盟希望走出这一萧条，引入一个统一的税收制度，穷人的基本收入，并逆转了养恤金改革。

This will smash EU budgetary regulations and put Italy on a collision course with Brussels.

这将打破欧盟预算规定，使意大利与布鲁塞尔发生冲突。

And what happens in Italy matters.

在意大利发生的事情很重要。

This is not tiny Greece we're talking about. Italy is the third-largest economy in the Eurozone.

我们谈论的希腊并不小，意大利是欧洲地区第三大经济体。

And although both Five Star and the League Party have backed away from earlier promises to hold a referendum on withdrawing Italy from the single currency, they could put the proposal back on the table at any time. The threat of that referendum would hang in the air as long as they remained in government.

尽管五星和阿盟党都放弃了早先关于举行全民公投将意大利从单一货币退出的承诺，但他们可以随时将这一提议付诸东流。只要他们继续执政，全民公投的威胁就将持续存在。

Off-putting for investors. Destabilising for the whole Eurozone.

对投资者的抵销。整个欧元区的去向。

And the EU as a whole.

以及整个欧盟。

Frustrated though they are with Brussels, there is no appetite amongst Italians for an Italexit - where they would walk out the EU for good.

尽管意大利人对布鲁塞尔感到沮丧，但他们对Italexit没有兴趣——他们愿意从欧盟走出去。

But having such a eurosceptic (and also Moscow-sympathising) government in the heart of Europe - Italy is one of the EU's founding members, don't forget - would be a huge blow to the project of 'ever-closer union' championed by French President Emmanuel Macron, for example.

但意大利是欧盟的创始国之一。不要忘记，这对于法国总统曼纽尔·马伦(Emmanuel Macron)所支持的“永远紧密的联盟”(country union)项目将是一个巨大的打击。

Concerned about the damage a Five Star-League government could inflict on Italy and the EU, Italy's president is currently stalling before giving it the green light.

由于担心五星联盟政府可能给意大利和欧盟造成的损害，意大利总统在给意大利带来绿灯之前正在停滞不前。

But he knows he must tread carefully.

但是他知道他必须小心踩着。

The majority of Italians say they want to give this government a chance.

大多数意大利人说，他们想给政府一个机会。

So, those in Brussels and beyond should think twice before wishing for new elections.

因此，在布鲁塞尔和其他地方的民众在希望举行新的选举之前应该三思而后行。

If Italians feel 'the establishment' is trying to silence their loud call for change, they're likely to vote for those who say they represent the voice of ordinary people - the populists - in even bigger numbers.

如果意大利人认为“建国”正试图压制他们呼唤变革的大声号召，他们很可能会投票支持那些称自己代表普通民众的声音的人——民粹主义者——甚至人数更多的人。